How low will interest rates go in 2024?
Mortgage rate predictions 2024
Mortgage rates are expected to decline later this year as the U.S. economy weakens, inflation slows and the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall to the low-6% range through the end of 2024, dipping into high-5% territory by early 2025.
Financial markets are currently predicting the first cut in interest rates will be in June 2024, falling to around 3% by the end of 2025, according to the latest forecasts from Capital Economics. As a general rule: if interest rates fall, the mortgage rate forecast would be for mortgage rates to fall too.
The forecasts are conditioned on a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing; the cash rate is assumed to remain around its current level of 4.35 per cent until the middle of 2024 before declining to around 3.2 per cent by the ...
According to their predictions based on recent data, Trading Economics anticipates the interest rate to descend to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
Importantly, the SEP projects that the Federal Funds rate will fall to 4.6% in 2024, 3.9% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026. This implies three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024.
The median estimate for the fed-funds rate target range at the end of 2025 moved to 3.75% to 4%, from 3.5% to 3.75% in December. For the end of 2026, the median dot now shows a target range of 3% to 3.25%, versus 2.75% to 3% three months ago.
Savings account rates increased in 2023 as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to combat inflation. Savings account rates will likely go down in 2024 when the Federal Reserve cuts its rate.
In summary, it is unlikely that mortgage rates in the US will ever reach 3% again, at least not in the foreseeable future. This is due to a combination of factors, including: Higher Inflation: Inflation is currently at a 40-year high in the US, and the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat it.
Driving the news: The median Fed official now expects interest rates to be somewhat higher in 2025 and 2026 than they did in December — anticipating fewer rate cuts will be justified in the coming two years. The median projection for the longer-run rate also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.5%.
What is the interest rate prediction for February 2024?
The cash rate is assumed to move broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of professional economists and financial market pricing. Using this methodology, the cash rate remains around its current level of 4.35 per cent until mid-2024 before declining to around 3¼ per cent by the middle of 2026.
Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors predict that mortgage rates will gradually descend in 2024, to around 6% in the final three months of the year.
What experts are saying. “The Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, but they do have an influence on them. Because of this, cuts in the Fed's target interest rate will probably mean lower mortgage rates… If all goes well, by the time 2025 comes around, we could see mortgage rates closer to 6%, or maybe even lower.
While rates have risen 13 times since May 2022, the drop won't be so far nor so fast. Even by the end of 2026 rates will probably only be around 1% lower than now. And this may be as low as interest rates go. The interest rates we saw during the COVID recession were arguably the lowest in human history.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
By yearend 2026, 11 of the 19 FOMC members projected the Fed funds rate range to be between 2.75% to 3.25%. These assumptions are based on inflation stabilizing at 2.0% by 2026.
Now, Fannie Mae expects rates to be a half-percent higher (6.4%) by the end of this year, and remain above 6% for another two years, gradually declining to a flat 6% by fourth-quarter 2025. Freddie Mac's latest data shows the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently around 6.74%.
| Month | Average 30-Year Fixed Rate |
|---|---|
| December 2023 | 6.82% |
| January 2024 | 6.64% |
| February 2024 | 6.78% |
| March 2024 | 6.82% |
As of writing, no U.S.-based banks are offering a 7.00% APY on a savings account. For high-yield savings accounts — top, competitive rates are more in the 5.00% APY range. However, Landmark Credit Union currently offers a Premium Checking account with a 7.50% APY on balances up to $500.
Higher interest rates typically have two effects on the housing market that can help drive down prices: They price some buyers out of the market, which is good for the buyers who remain, and they typically have the effect of putting downward pressure on housing prices, which is good for buyers.
What is the interest rate forecast for 2024 2025?
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
MBA's baseline forecast is for mortgage rates to end 2024 at 6.1% and reach 5.5% at the end of 2025 as Treasury rates decline and the spread narrows.
Interest Rates for 2021 to 2027. CBO projects that the interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes will average 2.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, during the 2021–2027 period. The federal funds rate is projected to average 3.1 percent.
Overall, forecasters expect mortgage rates to continue easing. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates to fall to 6.1 percent by year's end, while Fannie Mae forecasts they'll be at 5.8 percent. The National Association of Realtors estimates rates will average 5.9 percent for the full year.
| Loan term | Rate | Rate last week |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 7.37% | 7.38% |
| 15-Year Fixed Rate | 6.52% | 6.59% |
| 30-Year Jumbo Mortgage Rate | 7.38% | 7.39% |
If you feel like you've received the best rate possible and fear a rate increase, lock it in now. But if you're willing to gamble that the rate will drop in the coming days or weeks, lenders could let you wait and provide a lock-in at a later date.
